You must remember that slot machines, like many other casino games, do not have a “winning strategy”. Games with negative expectation (-EV for short) are technical games. Unlike games like poker (against live opponents, not the establishment) where using the right skills can make the game profitable in the long run, casino games are made in such a way that this is impossible.
What’s the reason why I can’t keep winning at slots?
Let’s break down why slot machines prevent you from winning money on a regular basis. Let’s just imagine a game with one type of payout – a “jackpot” that is awarded for collecting five identical symbols on the screen. The exact same logic can be applied to sophisticated modern slot machines. In this hypothetical machine, each line contains five symbols, and to win the jackpot on a machine that costs $1 per spin, you need to collect five identical symbols.
A random number generator controls the lines, so over time, five different symbols will open equally often on each line. Thus, the chance of catching one cherry on a single line is one fifth. The probability of getting a cherry on the second line is also 1/5. Thus, the probability of getting five cherries in a row is 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5, or 1/3125, or 0.032%.
You can win in these games if you collect five bells, stars or any other identical symbols. So your chances of collecting five of any symbol on this machine are five times 0.032%, or 0.16%. You can win the jackpot by collecting five identical symbols in a row every 625 spins of this hypothetical machine.
If the jackpot payout is $625, the machine will lose nothing because on average you’ll spend about $624 without winning anything, and then out of 625 the jackpot will hit with a $625 prize. Of course, the establishments set lower payouts, usually between ninety percent and two hundred and eighty percent. For example, if this fictional machine operated with a payout of ninety percent, the jackpot would be $594.
Undoubtedly, you can win the jackpot on the second spin and then walk away immediately, saving your money while staying in the plus side. Regardless, there is no known way to beat the law of averages over the long haul, so the house advantage will continue with time as well as results. It is incredibly rare for some machines to give payouts of just over 100 percent in a month. However, this is just a fluke, and such results will not be sustainable over large numbers.
Managers know that slot machines give “retention” and retention percentages can vary considerably. They are usually less on more expensive slots, usually 1 to 3 percent on $5 machines. While the investment percentage is not an exact measure, you will still lose more money on more expensive machines because you are putting significantly more money into the slot every hour.